S&P 500 Futures Weekly Recap: June 1-5, 2026
What a week to be short volatility — until Friday reminded everyone why that's usually a bad idea.
The S&P started Monday at 7,578 and looked like it was settling into a comfortable grind higher. We pushed through 7,630 twice in the first two days, with Monday closing at 7,611 (+32 points) and Tuesday adding another 24 points to close at 7,623. Classic low-vol melt-up action that's been the theme for months.
Wednesday gave us the first crack in the armor. After opening near Tuesday's close around 7,608, we couldn't hold the highs and sold off 34 points to close at 7,574. Nothing dramatic, but the first real selling pressure we'd seen all week.
Thursday looked like a recovery day. We gapped down to open at 7,546 but quickly reversed, rallying 53 points to close back at 7,599. The bounce off 7,541 felt significant — that level had held as support multiple times over the past month, and the algorithm was all over that reversal.
Then came Friday. What started as a quiet session turned into a rout. We opened at 7,545, couldn't even get back to 7,550, and proceeded to fall off a cliff. By the close, we were sitting at 7,410 — down 134 points on the day and 209 points for the week. The weekly range of 253 points from 7,632 to 7,379 tells you everything about how quickly sentiment shifted.
DT Algorithm Performance
Despite the Friday massacre, our DT algorithm had a solid week: 5 wins, 2 losses, +68.8 points net. What I liked most was how it positioned around the key inflection points early in the week.
Monday's first long entry at 7,607 caught the morning bounce perfectly, banking 9.5 points quickly. The second entry at 7,613 was even better — rode that momentum up to 7,621 for 17.5 points. The algorithm was reading the bullish tone correctly and capitalizing on the low-volatility grind.
The third Monday trade at 7,627 was our first loss of the week. Entry was right near the day's high, and when we couldn't break through 7,630 convincingly, the stop at 7,612 made sense. Down 15.2 points but preserved capital for better setups.
Tuesday's action was more of the same grinding higher. The long at 7,609 captured 20 points as we pushed back toward the previous day's highs. The second entry at 7,625 was mistimed — caught right as the market was running out of steam. Only down 2.5 points thanks to tight risk management.
Wednesday and Friday saw no DT setups, which in hindsight was perfect. Wednesday was choppy and directionless, while Friday was straight down with no meaningful bounces to trade.
Thursday was where the algorithm really shined. That opening gap down to 7,546 created exactly the kind of mean reversion setup the DT algo loves. First entry at 7,569 caught the early bounce for 19.2 points. Second entry at 7,588 rode the continuation move to 7,601 for another 20.2 points. Both trades captured the core of that 53-point recovery day.
The lifetime record now sits at 51 wins, 15 losses (77% win rate), which remains consistent with our backtesting. More importantly, the algorithm continues to avoid the worst of the downside moves while capitalizing on mean reversion opportunities.
TF Algorithm
No TF trades this week. The trend-following algorithm needs sustained directional moves to generate signals, and until Friday's collapse, we were stuck in a relatively tight range. Even Friday's sell-off was too fast and furious to produce clean trend entries — more of a gap-and-go situation than a sustainable trend.
This is exactly how the TF algorithm should behave. It's designed to catch multi-day moves, not chase intraday volatility spikes.
Next Week Outlook
We're heading into the week sitting at 7,410, which is uncomfortably close to that 7,379 weekly low. The fact that we couldn't bounce at all on Friday's close suggests there might be more selling ahead. The 7,380-7,400 area is now critical support — a break below likely opens up a test of 7,300 or worse.
On the upside, any recovery needs to reclaim 7,500 to suggest Friday was just a flush. The 7,540 level that held Thursday morning is now resistance, along with the obvious 7,600 area.
For our algorithms, this setup is actually interesting. The DT algorithm thrives in volatile environments where prices are moving away from fair value — Friday's action certainly qualifies. If we get continuation selling early next week, look for potential long entries if we approach or test those 7,380 lows.
The TF algorithm will be watching to see if Friday's breakdown develops into a sustained trend. Right now it's just one day, but a follow-through move below 7,380 could finally trigger the trend signals we haven't seen in weeks.
June FOMC is still two weeks out, but next Friday brings monthly options expiration, which typically adds some volatility to the mix. Given how complacent the market had become through Thursday, a little volatility might actually be healthy.
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