Weekly Trading Recap: August 17 – 21, 2026
It was a rough week for the bulls. The S&P 500 shed -1.6%, with MES dropping 124.5 points from 7812.0 to 7687.5, and four out of five sessions closing in the red. If you traded the long side this week, you had to be disciplined — and honestly, the algo had to work for every point it captured.
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Market Overview
The week opened with a bearish tone already baked in. Monday saw MES print a high of just 7809.5 — which turned out to be the week's high — before sliding to close at 7767.25, down 39.2 points. The backdrop was a combination of rising oil prices driven by renewed U.S.-Iran tensions and a 30-year Treasury yield threatening multi-decade highs. That cocktail — geopolitical risk plus a rising long end — hit the tech sector particularly hard, and tech's weight in the S&P meant the index felt the pain immediately.
Tuesday extended the damage. MES opened at 7727.0 and chopped lower, closing at 7715.5, down another 11.5 points. Semiconductors were getting hit hard — the Philly Semi dropped over 5% — and megacaps like Nvidia and Meta were dragging the IT sector with them. The 30-year yield pressing toward levels not seen in nearly two decades was squeezing growth valuations across the board.
Wednesday was the most interesting session. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that the Treasury would at least double its long-dated debt buyback program, from roughly $2 billion to $4 billion per operation, in an attempt to put a ceiling on long yields. That gave the market a brief intraday lift. MES opened at 7748.25, briefly tagged 7764.75, then faded to close at 7722.75, down 25.5 points. The intervention bought a few hours of optimism, not a trend reversal.
Thursday was the ugliest session of the week. Yields reversed back higher as the market quickly priced in skepticism about whether buybacks could actually suppress rates in a structural sense. Walmart's earnings — weaker comparable sales and downgraded profit guidance — added more fuel to the selloff. MES opened at 7696.0, dropped to a weekly low of 7661.75, and closed at 7663.5, down 32.5 points. By Thursday's close, we were sitting more than 147 points off Monday's high.
Friday brought some relief. Bessent appeared on CNBC reiterating that buybacks could exceed the announced $4 billion, and that bought enough confidence to push equities back. MES opened at 7692.0 and closed at 7693.75, up 1.8 points — nothing to write home about in terms of absolute gain, but after four consecutive down days it was a meaningful signal that the selling pressure was at least temporarily exhausted. The week's range of 147.75 points was well above what we typically see in lower-volatility summer weeks, reflecting genuine macro tension in the background.
The VIX closed at 15.13, up modestly on the week, and the 10-year yield ticked up to 4.74% from 4.69%. Neither reading is extreme, but both are pointing in the same direction — the rate environment isn't supportive of equities right now.
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DT Algorithm: 4W / 2L, +7.9 pts
The DT algo finished the week positive — +7.9 points ($+40) on 4 wins and 2 losses — which is a respectable result in a week that offered very little in the way of clean setups. The lifetime record now sits at 206W / 103L (67% win rate). Here's how it played out.
Tuesday was the only losing day of consequence. MES entered long at 7727.75 into a market that was still bleeding from Monday's selloff and Tuesday's semiconductor carnage. The trade never found traction and exited end-of-day at 7712.5, a loss of 15.2 points ($-76). Tough trade — the context wasn't cooperating, and the algo took the hit without hesitation on the exit.
Wednesday was the week's best day for the DT. The Treasury buyback announcement injected some short-term optimism and the algo caught two clean T1 exits: a long at 7750.0 out at 7758.05 for +8.1 points ($+40), and a long at 7751.25 out at 7756.80 for +5.5 points ($+28). Those entries came right around the intraday pivot as the market responded to Bessent's announcement, which is exactly where you want to be positioned. Both exits were clean and disciplined.
Thursday showed the algo's ability to find setups even in a grinding downtrend. MES printed its weekly low at 7661.75 before bouncing. The algo entered long at 7711.50 — above the low, catching a short-term mean reversion — and exited at 7716.95 for +5.5 points ($+27). Small, but clean.
Friday was a mixed bag. The first trade, long at 7697.0, caught the early bounce and exited at 7705.85 for +8.8 points ($+44) — the best single trade of the week in terms of points captured. The second trade, long at 7700.25, didn't hold and exited end-of-day at 7695.50, a loss of 4.8 points ($-24). That's the nature of a Friday afternoon in a choppy, recovering market — sometimes the second bite doesn't work.
All six trades this week were on the long side. In a week where the market fell 124 points, the DT found intraday mean reversion opportunities rather than fighting the trend all day. Losses were contained, winners were real.
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TF Algorithm
No TF trades this week. The trend-follow setup requires the kind of sustained, directional follow-through that this week's price action simply didn't deliver. What we got instead was a series of gap opens, brief intraday moves in either direction, and then continued drift. The daily ranges were meaningful — Thursday in particular had a 58-point range — but without clean trending structure, the TF stays on the sidelines. That's not a failure. That's the filter working.
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Next Week
We close the week at 7693.75 on MES, sitting closer to the bottom of the week's range (7661.75) than the top (7809.50). The bulls need to reclaim 7720–7750 to demonstrate any conviction, and a push back toward the weekly high would require a meaningful shift in the macro narrative. Right now, that narrative is: elevated long yields, geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East keeping oil bid, and a tech sector that's been the market's engine for most of 2026 now facing valuation headwinds.
There's no FOMC meeting in August, removing one major catalyst in either direction. Watch for further Treasury commentary on the buyback program — Bessent moved the market with words this week and could again. Any de-escalation on the Iran front would be meaningful for oil prices and broad risk sentiment.
For the DT, this choppy, mean-reverting environment below key resistance is workable but requires patience. For the TF, we need either a clean trend day higher to re-engage or a decisive break below 7661.75 to set up entries. Middle-of-the-range chop is the least favorable spot for a trend system.
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Trade on Paper First
If you're watching the Quanntick algos and thinking about getting started, paper trading is the right first move. It costs you nothing and teaches you everything about how the system behaves across different market conditions — including weeks like this one. Head to [quanntick.com](https://quanntick.com) to get set up.
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*Disclosure: results shown are from a simulated (SIM) account. Simulated performance is hypothetical, does not represent actual trading, and has inherent limitations. Past performance is not indicative of future results.*