Market Overview
Another week in the books, and on the surface it looks like nothing happened — the MES opened at 7773.75 and closed at 7776.50, a net gain of barely 2.8 points. But anyone who just looks at that weekly close and moves on missed one of the more volatile weeks we've had in a while. The intraweek range stretched from 7672.75 to 7810.50 — that's 137.75 points of travel. That is not a quiet market. That is a market that had real conviction in both directions and still ended up almost exactly where it started.
Here's how the week actually played out, day by day.
Monday was a clean sell. We opened at 7771.25 and never found footing — the session grinded lower and closed at 7740.50, down 30.8 points. The catalysts were straightforward: Treasury yields were surging again, and US-Iran tensions resurfaced over the weekend, sending oil higher and equity risk appetite lower. It was a textbook "yields up, stocks down" session, and the S&P flirted with going negative for the month of September right out of the gate.
Tuesday continued the pressure. We opened at 7758.25 and spent the entire session fighting to stay afloat. We couldn't. Close came in at 7730.50, down another 27.8 points, as the 10-year yield pushed to fresh multi-decade highs. The financial sector was taking the brunt of it — higher cost of capital, loan demand concerns, the whole playbook that comes with a genuine rate shock.
Wednesday was more of the same, just messier. Open at 7755.50, a modest intraday high of 7782.25, but sellers showed up and the close was 7727.75, down 27.8 points. Three consecutive down days, each roughly in the same 28-point loss range. The market was in a clear directional drift lower, with no session holding a meaningful bounce. By the end of Wednesday, we'd rolled off Monday's open by over 40 points — and the week's low still hadn't been set.
Thursday brought us there. The session dipped all the way to 7672.75 — that's your weekly support anchor. Yet despite printing that low, the close came in at 7726.00, a 50-plus point recovery off the intraday bottom. On paper it was still down 4.8 points — a fourth consecutive red close — but the reversal off 7672.75 mattered. Yields continued pressing to highs not seen since 2002, with the 10-year briefly touching 5.33%, but the market stopped going down hard in the face of it. When price stops responding to bad news, pay attention.
Friday was the catalyst reset. Stocks rose following a surprisingly weak jobs report that raised hopes the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady in October. Rate hike odds for the October FOMC meeting faded fast, and equities gapped sharply higher. The MES opened at 7790.50, pushed all the way to the week's high at 7810.50, and closed at 7775.50. Treasury yields initially fell following the jobs report, but then reversed and rose again — which is why the cash session technically closed down 15 points from Friday's own open — but the gap off Thursday's close recaptured nearly the entire week's losses in a single morning.
For the broader picture: the VIX closed the week at 15.31, down 5.26% from Monday's open of 16.16 — so despite the intraweek volatility, fear actually eased by Friday's close. The 10-year yield ended the week at 5.28%, still elevated, and that remains the dominant variable for equities right now. When yields are at 24-year highs, every data point that gives the Fed an excuse to pause is going to get a significant reaction.