Market Overview
Two macro catalysts dominated this week. Markets came in Monday absorbing a U.S.-Iran peace deal, which gave equities an early geopolitical tailwind. But the more significant driver was the first FOMC meeting under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh — and that's what ultimately defined the price action.
Monday opened firm, printing the week's high of 7,645.25 before sellers stepped in. Price closed at 7,620.38, down 23 points. Early strength faded as traders positioned defensively ahead of the two-day Fed meeting beginning Tuesday.
Tuesday continued the slide. Price opened at 7,606.12, peaked at just 7,611.38, and drifted to a 7,590.88 close — down another 15.2 points. Buyers had no conviction.
Wednesday was the defining session. The Fed held rates steady at 3.50–3.75% — expected — but the dot plot turned hawkish, with the median policymaker now projecting a rate hike before year-end, a stark reversal from March's implied cut. Chair Warsh's press conference doubled down on the inflation-fighting stance. The market sold it hard. Price opened at 7,578.12, dropped to the week's low of 7,472.88, and closed at 7,537.38 — a 40.7-point decline, easily the worst session of the week.
Thursday was stabilization, not reversal. Price held the 7,550s and crept up to close at 7,567.62, the "best" day of the week at just -5.3 points. Not exactly a ringing endorsement from the bulls.
The VIX closed at 16.4, roughly flat on the week. The 10-year yield ended unchanged at 4.45%. The cash S&P 500 dropped just 0.22% on the week — the futures action in the MES, especially Wednesday's FOMC flush, was where the real volatility lived.