Weekly Trading Recap: June 15–19, 2026
A four-day week — Friday closed for Juneteenth — but the market fit a full week's worth of volatility into it. The MES opened Monday at 7,590.62 and closed Thursday at 7,556.75, a net loss of 33.9 points (-0.5%). The headline is mild; the weekly range of 172.37 points (high 7,645.25, low 7,472.88) is not.
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Market Overview
Two macro catalysts dominated this week. Markets came in Monday absorbing a U.S.-Iran peace deal, which gave equities an early geopolitical tailwind. But the more significant driver was the first FOMC meeting under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh — and that's what ultimately defined the price action.
Monday opened firm, printing the week's high of 7,645.25 before sellers stepped in. Price closed at 7,620.38, down 23 points. Early strength faded as traders positioned defensively ahead of the two-day Fed meeting beginning Tuesday.
Tuesday continued the slide. Price opened at 7,606.12, peaked at just 7,611.38, and drifted to a 7,590.88 close — down another 15.2 points. Buyers had no conviction.
Wednesday was the defining session. The Fed held rates steady at 3.50–3.75% — expected — but the dot plot turned hawkish, with the median policymaker now projecting a rate hike before year-end, a stark reversal from March's implied cut. Chair Warsh's press conference doubled down on the inflation-fighting stance. The market sold it hard. Price opened at 7,578.12, dropped to the week's low of 7,472.88, and closed at 7,537.38 — a 40.7-point decline, easily the worst session of the week.
Thursday was stabilization, not reversal. Price held the 7,550s and crept up to close at 7,567.62, the "best" day of the week at just -5.3 points. Not exactly a ringing endorsement from the bulls.
The VIX closed at 16.4, roughly flat on the week. The 10-year yield ended unchanged at 4.45%. The cash S&P 500 dropped just 0.22% on the week — the futures action in the MES, especially Wednesday's FOMC flush, was where the real volatility lived.
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DT Algorithm: 5W/5L, -62.3 pts ($-312)
The algorithm finished 5-for-10 with a net loss of 62.3 points ($-312). The lifetime record holds at 151W/73L (67% win rate), and weeks like this are part of what that percentage is built on.
Monday was clean. Three longs, three T2 winners. Entry at 7,606.00 exited at 7,611.30 for +5.3 pts. Entry at 7,617.50 ran to 7,626.40 for +8.9 pts. Entry at 7,637.75 hit 7,643.50 for +5.8 pts. All three caught the session's steady morning bid as price worked toward the week's high. +20 points on the day — the system doing exactly what it's supposed to do.
Tuesday turned. A long at 7,635.25 stopped at 7,616.25 for -19.0 pts. Given that the session high was only 7,611.38, this entry was above the day's entire range — it had nowhere to go. The market was already leaking ahead of the Fed.
Wednesday was the session you can't win on the long side. The algo entered at 7,601.50 ahead of the FOMC announcement and stopped at 7,582.50 for -19.0 pts. With price ultimately trading down to 7,472.88, the stop was the right outcome — it just couldn't have known the Fed was about to flip its dot plot hawkish.
Thursday was a grind. Five trades, two winners. Three consecutive stops in the early session — -19.0, -19.4, -19.0 pts — as the market continued its post-FOMC search for footing. A long at 7,560.75 finally found some traction, exiting T2 at 7,566.15 for +5.4 pts. One more stop at -19.0 pts, then the final trade of the week — long 7,569.25, held into close and exited EOD at 7,577.05 for +7.8 pts.
The bottom line: Monday was the system working. Tuesday through Thursday were a system built for structure trading into three days of directional Fed-driven selling. The stops held their levels; the losses are what they are. The 67% win rate doesn't come from avoiding weeks like this — it comes from surviving them.
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TF Algorithm: No Trades This Week
No TF trades were taken this week. There were no setups that met the trend-following criteria in a market defined by an early fade, a brief chop period, and a sharp Wednesday spike down. The lack of a sustained directional move — outside of an intraday FOMC flush — didn't generate the conditions this system needs to get involved. Sitting on hands is a position too.
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Next Week Outlook
We closed Thursday at 7,556.75 — roughly mid-range between the week's high of 7,645.25 and low of 7,472.88. Neither level was decisively resolved, so both remain in play.
The calendar next week includes PCE price index data, which will be the first major inflation read post-Warsh presser. A hot number reinforces the hike narrative and keeps pressure on equities. GDP data is also on the docket, and Micron reports earnings as a meaningful AI demand proxy. It's a lot of event risk in a market that just got rattled by the Fed.
7,472.88 is the key level to watch on the downside — that's the week's low and the obvious support if sellers return. A clean break there opens up a more significant leg lower. On the upside, 7,645 needs to reclaim to suggest the market has moved past the hawkish Fed repricing. Until one of those levels gets taken out with conviction, I'd expect more chop.
For the DT algo, structured intraday ranges are workable. Slow grinds in one direction with no clean setups are harder — and that's what much of this week looked like after Monday. We'll be watching the open next week for clues on which character the market chooses.
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Trade the System Without Risking Real Capital
If you've been watching the Quanntick algorithms and want to see how they perform in real market conditions before committing capital, paper trading is the right first step. It lets you track entries, exits, and drawdown periods — like this week — in real time, so you understand the system before you're in it live. Reach out or visit the site to get started.