Weekly Trading Recap: June 29 – July 3, 2026
Market Overview
This was a holiday-shortened week — markets closed Friday for Independence Day — but there was nothing quiet about the price action leading up to it. The MES opened the week at 7,449.62 and closed Thursday at 7,556.75, a gain of +107.1 points (+1.4%) on the week. The full range stretched from 7,409.38 to 7,593.62, an 184-point span when you include the overnight sessions, though the cash session range tightened to 87.74 points between 7,479.88 and 7,567.62. That kind of range in a four-day week tells you there was real movement here — not just drift.
Monday was quiet. The ES opened at 7,487.62, barely moved, and closed at 7,494.62 — a +7-point session with a high of just 7,504.62. Low volume, cautious positioning, traders feeling out the week. Classic first-day-of-a-shortened-holiday-week behavior.
Tuesday flipped higher at the open — 7,551.88 — before fading through the session. The high touched 7,567.62, which would become the week's cash session high, and it couldn't hold. The close came in at 7,543.12, down 8.8 points on the day. The market was sniffing out the Fed's mid-week comments and backing off the highs. The Federal Reserve's additional comments on Wednesday were a key event to watch, following the release of labor market data, providing more insight into the Fed's stance on future rate hikes. That uncertainty weighed on Tuesday afternoon price action.
Wednesday was the ugliest day of the week. Open at 7,565.38, close at 7,533.62 — a -31.8-point sell-off and the biggest down day. The low of 7,525.88 held above the prior day's low, which was notable, but the rejection off that Tuesday high told you sellers were in control intraday. PCE data confirmed that inflation was at its highest in roughly three years, but also confirmed consumer spending remains robust — a mixed message that left traders unsettled mid-week.
Thursday was the reversal. The ES dropped to the week's cash low of 7,479.88 early in the session before ripping higher to close at 7,535.62, a gain of +41.9 points — the biggest up day of the week. The catalyst was clear: a softer June jobs report — only 57,000 jobs added — reduced fears of another Fed rate hike and helped support investor sentiment. Nonfarm payrolls for June increased by 57,000, slower than the downwardly revised 129,000 added in May and worse than the 115,000 Dow Jones consensus forecast. A weak number that in this environment meant more runway for the Fed to stay on hold — and markets liked it. The VIX confirmed the shift in sentiment, closing the week at 16.15 after opening at 18.6, a drop of more than 13%. The 10-year yield, however, ticked up to 4.49% from 4.38% — a reminder that bond markets aren't fully convinced on the rate-cut narrative.
Stepping back, this was a week that looked messy in the middle but resolved cleanly higher. The Tuesday high at 7,567.62 acted as resistance for two days before Thursday's jobs-driven rip finally punched through on an intraday basis. The structure mattered.
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DT Algorithm: 6W / 1L, +43.8 pts
Six wins, one loss, +43.8 points on the week, +$219 on MES sizing. The DT algorithm finished the week with a clean record given the conditions — choppy mid-week price action followed by a strong directional Thursday. Let's walk through the trades.
Monday saw two setups. The first long, entered at 7,476.25 and exited at 7,485.45, captured +9.2 points ($+46) — a solid T2 hit during a slow open as the market found its footing. The second long at 7,498.00 didn't work — the session ran out of steam near the day's high and the algo exited end-of-day at 7,495.50 for a -2.5-point ($-12) loss. Small and controlled. That's the loss on the week — one EOD exit on a setup that went nowhere.
Tuesday was the algo's best day by trade count. Three longs, all winners. Entry at 7,520.25, exit 7,525.30 for +5.0 points ($+25). Then 7,532.75 to 7,538.05 for +5.3 points ($+26). Both T2 hits catching the early session strength before the fade. The third trade was the standout — entry at 7,546.25, exit at 7,557.05, +10.8 points ($+54) at T3. That one caught the push toward the week's high before the sell-off took hold. Timing was sharp.
Wednesday produced one trade. With the session opening near the week's highs and selling off hard, the algo found a long entry at 7,544.50 and exited at 7,549.80 for +5.3 points ($+26) — a T2 scalp during what ended up being a down day overall. The algo didn't chase the sell-off or overstay.
Thursday was the week's best single trade. Entry at 7,571.50, exit at 7,582.15, +10.7 points ($+53) at T3. That entry came after the jobs report bounce had already cleared resistance, and the algo rode the continuation. Clean.
No TF trades this week. The mid-week chop and the compressed four-day structure likely didn't offer the kind of clean trend conditions the trend-following algo needs to trigger setups. That's fine — staying out of noise is part of the edge.
The DT lifetime record now stands at 163W / 77L, a 68% win rate across 240 tracked trades. That's a durable number.
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Next Week Outlook
We come into the week of July 6 with the MES sitting at 7,556.75, near the upper third of this week's range and not far off the recent highs at 7,593.62. The bulls held their ground and closed strong, but the cash session high at 7,567.62 was only briefly exceeded on Thursday's intraday push — that level is worth watching as near-term resistance.
The view at the halfway point of the year on Wall Street is more rosy than could have been expected at just about any point over the past six months, now that a U.S.-Iran resolution is in sight. The macro backdrop is improving, but the weak jobs number complicates the narrative. If the labor market is softening faster than expected, that cuts both ways — it keeps the Fed on hold, but at some point soft data becomes a growth concern, not just an inflation tailwind.
Key things to watch next week: Fed speakers returning post-holiday will be closely monitored for how they interpret Thursday's payrolls number. The 10-year yield at 4.49% is elevated and could create headwinds if it pushes higher. For the DT algo, the key level is that 7,479.88 low — if we pull back toward that zone, the algo will be looking for long setups in familiar territory. For the TF algo, a sustained directional move — either a clean break above 7,593.62 or a break below 7,479.88 — would be the kind of setup that gets it off the sideline.
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