Weekly Trading Recap: July 27–31, 2026
This week was a perfect example of why futures traders need to respect both sides of the tape. On the surface, the S&P 500 cash index gained +0.34% and the MES settled the week up +4.0 points — almost a non-event. But strip away the weekly close and you find 188.5 points of range, a -105.8 point Wednesday wipeout, and a Friday recovery that drove price to the week's high of 7541.0. There was nothing quiet about this week.
Market Overview
Monday opened with a mixed but constructive tone — the Dow rose on falling oil prices as investors awaited a big week of earnings and Fed communication. MES opened at 7511.25 and sold off hard throughout the session, closing at 7447.0 — down 64.2 points. The S&P 500 gained only slightly while the Nasdaq dropped on a chip selloff, reflecting the tech uncertainty that was beginning to build heading into earnings season.
Tuesday was a pause. The index ticked up +14.5 points as price held the 7417.0 low and recovered to close at 7470.0. Buyers showed up, but conviction was thin — the market was waiting.
Wednesday was the main event. The two-day FOMC meeting concluded on Wednesday, July 29, with the Fed voting 9-3 to hold the federal funds rate steady in the range of 3.5%–3.75%. That same morning, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released the Q2 GDP advance estimate, which missed expectations. Between a divided Fed, a hawkish tone from Chair Warsh's press conference, and the GDP miss, ES got hit. MES dropped 105.8 points on the session, collapsing from an open of 7461.75 down to a low of 7352.5 — which became the week's low — before closing at 7356.0. That was the most volatile single session of the week and the one that set up everything that followed.
Thursday was the reversal. Microsoft shares surged 16% on strong Azure growth after its earnings beat, and the broader S&P 500 climbed 1.7% to recover much of the prior day's losses. MES opened at 7407.25, pushed through 7478.5 on the highs, and closed at 7466.25 — up 59.0 points. The market did exactly what it often does after a Fed-driven flush: it found a bottom, digested the news, and ripped.
Friday completed the recovery. Stocks rebounded further as investors digested the Fed meeting alongside earnings from Microsoft and Meta, while Treasury yields hit long-term highs. MES opened at 7496.25 and drove straight to the week's high of 7541.0, closing at 7533.5 — up 37.2 points. The VIX, which had opened the week at 17.62, closed at 15.99 — a decline of 9.25% — reflecting that fear was being wrung out as the week progressed. The 10-year yield moved from 4.65% to 4.74%, a reminder that the rate environment hasn't softened even as equities recovered.
The week's structure tells a story: a two-day drift lower into a FOMC catalyst, a 188.5-point flush to a low of 7352.5, and then a two-day recovery that brought price back above the weekly open and near the top of the range. This is a trend trader's week — the Wednesday low was the opportunity if you were positioned right, and the Friday close near the highs sets up an interesting technical picture heading into August.
DT Algorithm Performance
The DT algo went 8W/4L this week, finishing +12.1 points (+$60) across 12 trades. Not a blowout week by any stretch, but the algo did what it's supposed to do in a volatile, directionally uncertain environment: grind out a positive result. Lifetime record now sits at 190W/93L — 67% win rate.
The algo took no trades on Monday. The price action was a clean one-way sell from open to close, and there were no setups that met criteria. Sometimes the best trade is no trade.
Tuesday was a loss day. Both entries were LONG — 7478.75 and 7472.75 — trying to catch a bounce in a market that was still processing Monday's damage and positioning for the Fed. The first stopped out at -15.8 points. The second closed at end of day for -3.2 points. Together: -19.0 points. The market wasn't ready to trend yet, and the algo paid for it.
Wednesday was the algo's most active day, and it ended up being the most instructive. Three LONG entries into a market that was selling off on FOMC uncertainty. The first — entry at 7419.75 — caught a brief intraday bounce and hit T1 for +5.3 points. The second entry at 7442.25 stopped out for -16.4 points as the market resumed its decline toward 7352.5. The third at 7456.25 recovered and hit T2 for +10.4 points. Net on Wednesday: -0.7 points — essentially flat on the most chaotic day of the week. I'll take that.
Thursday was the cleanest day of the week. Three LONG entries — 7424.5, 7433.5, and 7453.25 — all into the post-FOMC, post-earnings recovery. All three hit targets: +7.2, +6.7, and +12.1 points respectively. The algo caught the Thursday reversal in stride, riding the Microsoft-and-Meta-fueled bounce for +26.0 points on the day.
Friday was a two-step. The first LONG at 7508.25 stopped out at -15.8 points — likely catching a pullback in the early part of the session before the final push to the highs. But the algo stayed with it: three more LONGs at 7484.0, 7504.25, and 7525.25 all hit T1, netting +6.9, +7.0, and +7.6 points. Friday finished +5.7 points net. The algo scratched back from the stop and still walked away green.
TF Algorithm
No TF trades this week. Given the choppy Monday-through-Wednesday price action and the sharp directional whipsaws around the FOMC, there were no setups that met the TF criteria. That's not a failure — it's the algo doing its job. Trend-following approaches need sustained directional movement, and a week with a -105 point down day followed immediately by a +59 point reversal is precisely the environment where sitting out is the right call.
Next Week
We're closing the week at 7533.5 on MES, right near the top of the weekly range with the high at 7541.0 just overhead. That level matters. If the market can clear and hold 7541, there's not much technical resistance above it from this week's structure. If it fails there, a retest of the mid-range area around 7450–7470 is a reasonable expectation before the market decides its next move.
The macro calendar gets quieter after this week's FOMC noise, but the August jobs report on August 7 will be the next major catalyst. The Fed's divided vote and persistent hawkishness from some members means employment data will be watched closely for any sign that rate policy needs to shift. The 10-year at 4.74% is worth monitoring — if yields keep climbing, equity multiples will face pressure regardless of earnings strength.
For both algos, I want to see how price handles the 7541 resistance zone. A clean breakout with follow-through is a trend-following setup. A rejection and pullback sets up mean-reversion opportunities. Either way, there's a trade in there.
Paper Trade With Quanntick
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