Market Overview
Monday opened with a mixed but constructive tone — the Dow rose on falling oil prices as investors awaited a big week of earnings and Fed communication. MES opened at 7511.25 and sold off hard throughout the session, closing at 7447.0 — down 64.2 points. The S&P 500 gained only slightly while the Nasdaq dropped on a chip selloff, reflecting the tech uncertainty that was beginning to build heading into earnings season.
Tuesday was a pause. The index ticked up +14.5 points as price held the 7417.0 low and recovered to close at 7470.0. Buyers showed up, but conviction was thin — the market was waiting.
Wednesday was the main event. The two-day FOMC meeting concluded on Wednesday, July 29, with the Fed voting 9-3 to hold the federal funds rate steady in the range of 3.5%–3.75%. That same morning, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released the Q2 GDP advance estimate, which missed expectations. Between a divided Fed, a hawkish tone from Chair Warsh's press conference, and the GDP miss, ES got hit. MES dropped 105.8 points on the session, collapsing from an open of 7461.75 down to a low of 7352.5 — which became the week's low — before closing at 7356.0. That was the most volatile single session of the week and the one that set up everything that followed.
Thursday was the reversal. Microsoft shares surged 16% on strong Azure growth after its earnings beat, and the broader S&P 500 climbed 1.7% to recover much of the prior day's losses. MES opened at 7407.25, pushed through 7478.5 on the highs, and closed at 7466.25 — up 59.0 points. The market did exactly what it often does after a Fed-driven flush: it found a bottom, digested the news, and ripped.
Friday completed the recovery. Stocks rebounded further as investors digested the Fed meeting alongside earnings from Microsoft and Meta, while Treasury yields hit long-term highs. MES opened at 7496.25 and drove straight to the week's high of 7541.0, closing at 7533.5 — up 37.2 points. The VIX, which had opened the week at 17.62, closed at 15.99 — a decline of 9.25% — reflecting that fear was being wrung out as the week progressed. The 10-year yield moved from 4.65% to 4.74%, a reminder that the rate environment hasn't softened even as equities recovered.
The week's structure tells a story: a two-day drift lower into a FOMC catalyst, a 188.5-point flush to a low of 7352.5, and then a two-day recovery that brought price back above the weekly open and near the top of the range. This is a trend trader's week — the Wednesday low was the opportunity if you were positioned right, and the Friday close near the highs sets up an interesting technical picture heading into August.