Market Overview
The MES opened the week at 7,562.25 and closed at 7,777.25 — a net gain of +215 points (+2.8%) over five sessions. The cash S&P added +3.37%. That's a strong week by any measure, but the distribution of those gains matters for anyone trading it actively.
Monday set the tone. Price dipped to the weekly low of 7,542.75 early before snapping back and closing at 7,628.25, up nearly 73 points. The driver was oil — crude slid sharply on renewed US-Iran talks and optimism around a potential deal to ease tensions at the Strait of Hormuz. Lower energy prices read as disinflationary, and the market priced that in immediately.
Tuesday was the week's defining session. The MES ran from 7,660 to a high of 7,786, closing at 7,766.50 for +106.5 points on the day — the S&P cash index hit a record high. The fuel was earnings. Palantir and Caterpillar both beat expectations, with Palantir dramatically raising its full-year revenue outlook and reassuring investors that AI-driven demand is intact. Between the geopolitical tailwind from Monday and back-to-back blowout earnings reports, bulls ran the tape hard.
Wednesday is where the week's character changed. Price opened at 7,807.75, tagged the weekly high of 7,820.25, and reversed — closing at 7,764.50, down 43.2 points. The S&P surrendered an intraday record as AI stocks weakened, but volatility and credit did not confirm broad risk-off. This looked more like digestion than distribution, but 7,820 was a clear message that resistance was there.
Thursday extended the pullback. The MES held a tight range between 7,724.25 and 7,768.50, closing at 7,735.75, down another 15.8 points. The S&P 500 fell as traders kept an eye on the Middle East, with a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz still in the works. The Dow was also weighed down by a 3% drop in Salesforce after the company announced a leadership shuffle. Two down days, but orderly — no panic.
Friday reclaimed some ground. The MES closed at 7,777.00, up +20.2 points. July's jobs report showed unexpected losses, but the Nasdaq rose and the S&P 500 gained as markets interpreted the soft print favorably. VIX finished the week at 14.90, down 7.05% from Monday's open — fear faded as the week closed. The 10-year yield barely moved, settling at 4.66%, with no bond market disruption to derail equities.
Weekly range: 277.5 points. Enough structure to trade, enough volatility to keep it honest.