Market Overview
This week had a clear shape: a three-day grind higher followed by a brutal reversal on Friday. Call it a failed breakout. The MES opened the week at 7668.5 and spent Monday through Wednesday pushing toward 7794.5, the week's high, as the broader tape caught a bid coming off back-to-back losing weeks. Then came Friday, and everything gave back in a single session.
Big Tech earnings ended up steering markets this week, and the story had two distinct halves. Early in the week, Anthropic's IPO filing lifted AI stocks on Monday, while the 10-year Treasury yield slipped toward 4.99%, giving the tape room to run. The index built steadily from Monday's open through Wednesday's high, though gains compressed each day, a classic sign of distribution near resistance.
Thursday cracked first. The S&P 500 Tech Sector fell nearly 5% on Friday, but the rot set in a day earlier when Alphabet's earnings stoked fresh concern about AI capex returns. Then Friday finished the job. US stocks plunged on the final trading day of the month as earnings from Amazon and Alphabet rekindled concerns about the amount of money Big Tech is spending on AI ambitions. Intel sank almost 29% for its worst day since 1974 after giving a profit forecast that fell below analysts' expectations. The MES tagged 7557.75 intraday, its lowest print of the week, before settling at 7614.5.
The weekly range of 236.75 points between 7557.75 and 7794.5 reflects elevated but not extreme volatility. VIX closed at 19.42, essentially flat on the week, meaning the options market had already priced in a degree of event risk heading into earnings. The index closed in the lower third of its weekly range, which tells you where the conviction landed by Friday's bell.