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·4 min read·Will Ostuni·Weekly Market Notes

Weekly Market Notes: November 02 – November 06, 2026

The week in 10 seconds

−254.50pts−3.33%

S&P 500 futures, week open to close

Open → close7,651.50 → 7,397.00
Week range365.50 pts
Week high7,746.50
Week low7,381.00
VIX25.64+34.59%
10-year yield4.86%−0.92%

The week in three lines

  • The S&P 500 dropped 3.2% on the week, with virtually all of the damage occurring in a single Thursday session that erased mid-week gains.
  • Democrats' sweeping midterm victories sparked an AI and chip stock rout on fears of tighter data center regulation, sending VIX from 19 to nearly 26.
  • Friday's hot jobs print lifted Fed rate hike odds for December, capping the week with a macro overhang that markets have not yet resolved.

The week, bar by bar

S&P 500 futures, 4-minute closes
7,4007,600Mon Nov 2Tue Nov 3Wed Nov 4Thu Nov 5Fri Nov 6Week high 7,746.50Week low 7,381.00

Day by day

  • MonNov 2▼ −74.25−0.97%

    Broad selloff as markets positioned cautiously ahead of midterm results.

  • TueNov 3▲ +18.25+0.24%
  • WedNov 4▲ +120.75+1.59%

    Post-election relief rally; best single-session gain in roughly three months.

  • ThuNov 5▼ −319.25−4.14%

    AI and chip stocks collapsed on Democratic midterm sweep and data center regulation fears.

  • FriNov 6▲ +0.00+0.00%

    Hot jobs report raised December Fed hike odds; market barely recovered.

What to watch next week

  • Whether MES 7381 holds as support or breaks to new lows on a retest.
  • Congressional Democratic proposals on AI and data center regulation following midterm sweep.

Market Overview

This was a sharp reversal week in the S&P 500. The index opened near 7650 and was grinding sideways-to-higher through Wednesday, then got hit with a single-day wipeout on Thursday that reset the whole tape. The shape of the week is a classic "trap and drop": buyers pushed to a high of 7746.5 mid-week, then price collapsed to a low of 7381.0 by Thursday, leaving a 365.5-point range that tells you everything about the volatility environment. VIX opened the week at 19.05 and closed at 25.64, a move that reflects real institutional fear, not just noise.

Monday started the week with a pullback, with tech and AI-linked names already under pressure ahead of the midterm results. Wednesday's pop was a post-election relief rally, the best day in roughly three months, as markets initially processed the midterm outcome.

Then Thursday happened. A brutal sell-off swept through Wall Street, led by stocks tied to the buildout of AI data centers, and the wipeout more than erased the prior day's gain. Democrats swept the U.S. midterm elections, sparking a sell-off in AI and data center stocks. Democratic winners and progressive lawmakers called for tougher limits on AI and data centers after the 2026 midterm results, with some calling for a national data center moratorium. The concentrated positioning in mega-cap tech turned a policy-driven narrative shift into a waterfall move: the S&P 500 posted its worst day since the April 2025 tariff shock.

On Friday, jobs data came in hot, with nonfarm payrolls well above consensus and unemployment falling to 4.1%, which raised market odds of a December Fed hike. The market barely moved, closing essentially flat on the day, suggesting buyers weren't ready to step in front of the macro uncertainty.

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